If 2025 was a year of recalibration for the homebuilding and renovation industries, 2026 is shaping up to be a year of disciplined momentum.

From our vantage point at Wray Ward, working alongside homebuilding and renovation brands every day, the signals are clear: Demand hasn’t disappeared — it has become more selective, more value driven and more strategic.

Based on the latest data from NAHB and 2026 forecasts from Houzz and Zonda, new construction is advancing cautiously while renovation demand continues to gain momentum. Across both, affordability, labor and cost pressures are shaping purchase decisions. Here’s what those dynamics signal for brands navigating the year ahead.

Builder Sentiment: Cautious, Not Collapsing

According to the NAHB, builder sentiment ended 2025 slightly improved, but remained negative heading into 2026. The NAHB Housing Market Index registered at 39 in December, below the benchmark of 50 that signals positive sentiment.

“Builders are contending with rising material and labor prices, as tariffs are having serious repercussions on construction costs,” said NAHB Chairman Carl Harris.

At the same time, expectations for future sales have shown modest improvement, suggesting builders aren’t retreating, but rather are proceeding carefully.

How WWe See It: This isn’t a market pulling back entirely — it’s one demanding smarter positioning, clearer differentiation and stronger justification for value, especially in new construction. Brands that win will move beyond broad claims and focus on proof: demonstrating how their products help builders manage cost volatility, reduce labor complexity or deliver long-term performance that protects margins. That could mean elevating messaging around installation efficiency, durability or life cycle savings; arming sales teams with clearer value comparisons; or shifting marketing from aspirational storytelling to practical, decision-enabling content that helps builders defend choices in a tighter approval environment.

Housing Starts: Flat Growth in a High-Risk Environment

The housing market outlook from the economic experts at Zonda reinforces this measured outlook. For 2026, Zonda forecasts largely flat housing starts, totaling around 1.3 million units, with modest gains in single-family construction offset by continued softness in multifamily.

Zonda characterizes 2026 as a high-risk environment, driven by interest rate volatility, affordability constraints and cautious capital deployment. In short: stability, not acceleration.

How WWe See It: When growth flattens, share of mind matters more than share of market. In a stable but competitive market, clarity becomes a growth strategy. Brands that rise above the noise will be those that simplify decision-making for buyers, clearly articulating where they fit, what problems they solve and why they’re a safe, smart choice right now. That may look like tightening brand narratives to focus on reliability and predictability, emphasizing proven performance over innovation for innovation’s sake or creating content and tools that help builders and developers move forward with confidence despite uncertainty.

Home Renovations: Where Confidence Still Lives

While new construction advances cautiously, home renovation activity remains a popular alternative as homeowners confidently invest in their existing spaces, expanding project scopes and turning to professionals to bring their visions to life.

According to the 2026 U.S. Houzz Renovation Plans Report:

• 91% of homeowners plan to begin renovations in 2026.

• 67% expect to keep or expand the scope of their projects.

• 93% plan to hire professionals to complete the work.

That’s a powerful signal, especially in a market where high mortgage rates continue to discourage moving. Instead, homeowners are choosing to invest in what they already own, rather than trade up. Still, optimism comes with caveats. Houzz reports that 63% of homeowners cite rising material costs as their top concern, followed closely by labor costs (31%) and access to skilled pros (25%).

How WWe See It: Renovation demand is strong, but it’s also more discerning. Homeowners aren’t just buying products; they’re seeking strategic partners who will help them navigate cost concerns and project complexities with confidence. Brands that succeed will prioritize education and reassurance by focusing on relationship-building — clearly explaining where to spend, where to save and how specific choices impact durability, maintenance and resale value. That could mean investing in clearer product comparison tools, homeowner-friendly content that demystifies pricing and performance, or marketing that emphasizes trust, transparency and professional endorsement.

The Through Line: Value, Trust and Relevance

Across all three outlooks, one theme holds strong: the homebuilding and renovation industry is stable, but expectations are higher.

• Builders are cautious, but still planning.

• Homeowners are spending, but scrutinizing.

• Projects are moving forward, but with less margin for error.

For home and building brands, this puts pressure on marketing to do more than inspire. It must educate, reassure and differentiate.

At Wray Ward, we see brands winning in this environment by focusing on:

• Clear value propositions tied to efficiency, longevity and performance

• Relationship-building content that answers real questions, not just sells features

• Messaging that acknowledges constraints — and positions solutions within them

The 12 months ahead may not be a breakout year for volume, but 2026 is a pivotal year for brand strength. Renovation will continue to carry momentum. New construction will remain selective. And the brands that succeed will be those that understand the mindset of today’s homeowner and builder — pragmatic and cautious yet willing to invest when the value is clear.

That’s where smart home and building marketing plays its most important role: helping demand find confidence again.

We’re ready to help your brand stand out from the crowd. Let’s chat.